【OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK FOR 2026 HONG KONG STOCKS】HANG INDEX TARGET 31000 PIPS

Hong Kong stocks “opened red” this year, $ Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ It rose 707 points on the first day of the year and regained the 26000 mark. $Hang Seng TECH Index(800700.HK)$ More significantly, the first two trading days of the year were up 4%.

2026 Hang Seng Target 31000 pips

As a whole, the outlook for the stock market for 2026 is organic, and the Hang Seng Foundation forecasts a target of 31000 points for 2026. This is due to concerns about the performance and technology of the Technology Industry in 2025, most importantly the improvement in the market's volatility, which has not occurred so far. Beyond that, the Fed's drawdown period will be extended into 2026, and the gradual pace of tapering will lead to the consolidation of more Hong Kong stocks. While the market will not reflect the global economic performance, the combined stock market decline and the stop of the contraction (QT) will benefit the market's volatility.

In the investment environment of Hong Kong stocks in 2026, the market will focus even more on the profitability of enterprises. Whether the rise of the stock market creates a “wealth effect” is a key factor. If the consumer market can also show an optimistic improvement, the optimistic target is more likely to reach 34000 points.

Technology stocks and high yield stocks are key investment topics, both of which stand to benefit from the decline in the United States. Technology in China will make significant progress in 2025, and AI large-scale production technology upgrades, machinists and semiconductors will continue to be the focus of the market. In terms of higher shares, the changes in the performance of the new companies in the wake of the Kowloon Region will continue to attract the market's attention, and some companies' annual business announced in March, our deleveraging policies and communication skills will be the focus of investment.

The above are the main points of investment and attention during the strategy meeting on December 9. Current rules and majors discuss in detail why the above predictions came about. Share the ideas and thoughts of the participants during the analysis, together with Louis and everyone. If you have spent two years sharing a talk, it is more important to know how to achieve a Target Price than a comparable Target Price in the course of your investment.

Has the value of the constant valuation reached?

(Source: WIND)

In traditional analysis, statistics are generally used to predict market valuations and reasonable levels, and above is the Hang Seng Index's ten-year trough of market penetration. The PE rate channel can clearly see the average value for the past ten years, and ± 1 & 2 standard deviations (Standard Deviation). From the data point of view, the Hang Seng Index's PE has exceeded the 10-year average of about 10K. The first information can be obtained from this point that the current valuation of Hong Kong shares is no longer affordable compared to Historical Data. The Hang is currently about 12.1PE, which is already the closest value of the Historical Data to one SD above.

Compared to global equities, the current maturity of the global stock index has a market rate of around 15~25bp to the left. All in all, the valuation strength of the stock market in global markets has a certain strength. The key factors will be the driving force of Technology and Technology. The strong performance of Hong Kong stocks in 2025 is one of the main points of concern in Technology and Technology, which is an important driver of the increase in the value of the market.

Outside of this, the highest ever Hang Seng PE is near 15p, the Hang Seng Index's high of 33484 on January 29, 2018, which is the historical high of the Hang Seng Index. Displayed from the data, the Hexagon cannot break the level of 15x PE from the future. FROM WIND, THE EPS OF THE HANG INDEX IS AROUND 2170.3, WITH A 15X PE VALUATION OF 32550 POINTS. This can be seen as the extreme of the Hexagon indicator, but also explains why many market leaders see the 26000-28000 point range as the target (SD + 1~2 horizontal).

The data above does not include profit growth forecasts, using only the market rate TTM (past December). Taking into account the efficiency gains of AI technology and the improvement in profitability of some traditional enterprises, the Hang Seng Index is predicted to show an increase in the market rate in 2025, and the market rate channel has the potential to resume its upward trend in the next six months of 2024, and the valuation of the index will change again More power to absorb.

Considering Heavy Weight Blue Chips $BABA-W(09988.HK)$ ， $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ 、 $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$ EPS has maintained strong EPS growth in the first three quarters of 2025, $HSBC HOLDINGS(00005.HK)$ und $AIA(01299.HK)$ Our core business and profitability have remained stable, and the strong EPS growth is expected to show a good performance in the next two years. Therefore, EPS growth of 10% is calculated, the EPS of the Hang Seng Index is expected to increase by 2170 to 2387, and the estimate will increase to +13.1 times the PE of 2SD, reaching the target of 31000 points.

A further increase in profit growth for leisure companies, including a trend change in the trend of rollbacks and downturns in messages, is currently nearing a 20% rise in underlying performance, with a 13.1 times market PE forecast to reach around 34,000 points.

Options for Technology Stocks and Advances in 2026

People recognize that conditions continue to be good for stocks that look good in 2025, that there is no big difference between visitors in 2025 and in 2026, only a large change in values, and sentiment and sentiment will benefit from further bullish stocks. How People Have Been Bullish for a Year $KUAISHOU-W(01024.HK)$ , The share price has increased by 15% on the first two trading days of the year. Stocks with a range of AI agents and good commercialization have continued to be Bullish, but most importantly, value is relative to a reasonable and reliable level, such as Kuaishou's current market PE of TTM is only 16.7p. Upcoming Upgrade $BIDU-SW(09888.HK)$ With a market rate of TTM of only 40 cents, the value is not based on the company's current and popular chip business and driverless technology in the market.

Technology Stocks are primarily dominated by Stocks with Strong Cash Flow and Business Stability, for example, News in the Gaming and Gaming Business $NTES-S(09999.HK)$ 。 Out there, AI models and AI agents' commercialization path can be seen as growth highlights, such as Miles, Kuaishou, or nearby Baidu as a symbol of concern. SIMPLY PUT, MARKET-FOCUSED BATCHES WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT AGAIN IN 2026.

With regard to driverless and mechanized businesses, this Industry Chain is due to Physical AI, which has greater advantages in supply chain and technology in China. $UBTECH ROBOTICS(09880.HK)$ $HORIZONROBOT-W(09660.HK)$ $XPENG-W(09868.HK)$

Driverless technology has begun to be popularized, and L3~L4 technology will tend to mature. It is not because of the investment in this Industry Chain that the losses of some companies will begin to decrease, while the market expects that by 2030 some of the companies with autonomous driving will be commercialized and generate profits, and the market will begin to notice that the cash flow of this Industry Chain will gradually improve.

In terms of robotics, the development process is relatively lengthy, and the company's revenue growth needs to maintain a high growth rate. In addition to paying attention to losses, the competitiveness of the company's products is a focus of more attention on the market.

Driverless and mechanized businesses end up being subject to high risks, and unless the profit outlook is clear, companies are more likely to develop the economy through fundraising activities, and the risk of shorting a stock can hardly be avoided altogether. Therefore, to invest in this Sector, it is best to spread the investment out of individual equity risks. From the perspective of Fortune, at least one year after the IPO companies have made a dividend, there are a few stocks that have been able to stay at their maximum starting price, which is an important Indicator of market sentiment.

For high-yield stocks, investment methods and 2025 are no different. With the emphasis on Chinese financial stocks, we can benefit from an improvement in the economy as a whole in China, and some negative economic indicators may reflect on our share prices. For example, omit the M1 and M2 numbers mentioned in the text.

$CHINA LIFE(02628.HK)$ $PING AN(02318.HK)$ $CPIC(02601.HK)$ $NCI(01336.HK)$ $CCB(00939.HK)$ $ICBC(01398.HK)$ $BANK OF CHINA(03988.HK)$ $BANKCOMM(03328.HK)$ $ABC(01288.HK)$ $CM BANK(03968.HK)$

(Source: Financial M Square)

Stocks with mutual funds will decrease, MMF's returns and deposits will become unattractive, while stocks with extremely high yields will often hide equity risks (such as a change in party policy). Using ETFs is the most effective way to diversify investments. ONE. A Covered Call ETF can continue to be revisited, according to an article from JanuaryHong Kong High Yield New: Covered Call ETF Monthly Yield Guidance”It was mentioned. $Global X HSCEI Covered Call Active ETF(03416.HK)$ $CSOP HSCEI Covered Call Active ETF(02802.HK)$

In comparison, the performance of a number of cyclical stocks, including Precious Metals, Nonferrous Metals and Resources Sectors, is not recommended for long-term forecasts by shareholders. The most important in the long run are the components of cyclical investments, shares and non-investment cyclical stocks. Examples of Memorable Stocks, Articles in Front of PapersRemembering the Magic of the Body Industry? This is a unique investment opportunity The logic behind this is that Stocks are most important to see a change in the supply chain, only if there is no shift towards a change in production, the share price is expected to return to the next city. Published two weeks ago $CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07709.HK)$ $Micron Technology(MU.US)$ $SanDisk Corp(SNDK.US)$ Up approximately 44%, 22% and 19% respectively。

I said it leaked. $CSOP Samsung Electronics Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07747.HK)$ , an even more rapid rise of 55%。

Futu Securities, Chief Analyst, Hui Chi-Lok

(The author is a licensee of the Securities and Exchange Commission and its affiliates do not have any financial interest in the proposed issuer of shares)