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What do you see in the non-farm employment data? Analysis and deployment strategy guidelines
Time of publication of non-agricultural employment data
At 8:30 p.m. on November 1, Beijing time, there will also be a weighty economic announcement, the U.S. October non-farm employment report.
What is the non-farm employment data
Non-agricultural, generally meansEmployment Status of the U.S. Non-Farm PopulationThe Data Indicators, commonly referred to as NFP (Nonfarm Payroll), include the number of non-farm employees, the non-farm payrolls, and the loss rate.
The U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data Report is one of the most important economic data traders pay attention to each month. Data is extremely important for traders because it can show the employment growth situation in the United States.
Why is this non-farm employment data report important?
The timing of the release of this non-farm report is very delicate, ahead of the general election and the conference.
The non-farm report reflects the momentum market outlook. However, it does not directly reflect the stock market, but it will affect MMF policy, which is an important reference indicator for the Fed's recovery and downturns, while the interest rates for the US Federal Reserve reflect the stock market and debt.
On September 18 this year, the Federal Reserve opened its rate cut cycle, announcing a 50bp rate cut, bringing the base rate down to 4.75% ~ 5%. Although the rate cut had been expected, the rate cut was more than expected, and analysts at the time said the Fed was worried about worsening employment and was a precautionary rate cut.
US Shares>Featured Visitor Data" style="width:692px;height:878px;" loading="lazy" data-description="上圖來自：富途牛牛app的市場>美股>精選宏觀數據">However, US bond yields did not reverse after the Fed cut interest rates, and the current 10-year yield recently returned to 4.2%, leaving many US debt investors out of touch (as the US bond price is inversely proportional to yield).
There may be two main reasons, one being the September non-farm data after the downturn and no difference, adding 0.25 million far beyond the forecast, so that the market looks like it may not be too damaging to employment. The closer Trump picks, the market recognizes that other policies may push Qualcomm higher, lowering the forecast for a downturn. These two factors are driving the US bond rate closer to a straight increase.
All of these non-farm data for October are extremely important and may be one of the most important Indicators for determining the US Debt Rate in the short term.
What is the view and analysis of non-farm employment data?
A complete non-farm employment report, including a lot of data, investors can focus on the following two data:
— Nonfarm Payrolls: This refers to employment data that excludes the agricultural population and is simply understood as the number of people employed in the manufacturing, construction, and service industries in the United States.
Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is the proportion of a country's unemployed population to the employed population
The analysis is also simple: the addition of more non-agricultural jobs, low unemployment represents a strong employment market, a prosperous economic market, a reduced urgency to reduce interest rates; a small number of new non-farm workers, high unemployment rates, a potential risk of economic recession, affecting investment and consumer confidence, and a reduction in the urgency of the rate It just increases.
On the other hand, the short-term volatility of the market is related, and fellow investors can find the market futures value of the relevant data on the Futubull app, go through the path of Market>US Stock>Financial Calendar, and add it to your calendar.
It can be seen that the market currently expects the addition of non-agricultural jobs in October at 0.115 million, while the unemployment rate is expected at 4.1%.
If October's non-farm data beat expectations, indicating good employment conditions, reinforcing expectations of a “soft landing,” it could be a potential boon for US equities and could further boost US equities in the short term.
If the October African Agricultural Data is not as expected, it is possible that dull employment is on the horizon. This will strengthen the downside of the US Cohesion. Declining Sectors may benefit in the short term, such as US Bonds, Small Shares, CNI Biomedicine Index stocks.
How to deploy based on non-farm employment data?
How you deploy actually depends on your judgment of the impact of non-farm data on the aftermarket, with three potential scenarios:
Non-farm employment data exceeds expectations
If farmers outperform expectations, the market is on a “soft landing” narrative, so U.S. stocks as a whole may benefit. If you don't know what to choose, consider a large-cap index ETF, such as Tracking $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$ possibly $NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US)$ of ETFs, where $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO.US)$ und $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$ These two metrics are the largest ETFs for Asset Modeling.
>> Learn moreUS Stock Indices ETFInvestment Methods
Non-farm employment data falls short of expectations
In the near term, the market is not expected to trade lower interest rates, so US bonds may benefit in the short term due to the reverse in the US bond price ratio. wherein $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ It is the largest ETF by assets, followed by 20-year US bonds. TLTs are available as standard versions, such as $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US)$ It's three times as much. $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF(TMV.US)$ It's a triple whammy, but keep in mind that leveraged ETFs generate big gains and losses and are not suitable for investors with lower risk preferences.
>> Learn moreUS Bond ETFInvestment Methods
Non-farm employment data shows unclear direction
If you don't see a clear direction, think there may be a lot of market volatility in the future, or even panic, you might want to consider including some multi-volatility ETFs in your portfolio for hedging risk. Do Multi Volatility ETF Tracking $VIX(BK91327)$ Fault Indicators, VIX rises during market failures, and related ETFs may benefit, among which the most volatile ETFs in the Asset Modeling are $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY.US)$ 。
>> Learn morePanic Index VIXInvestment method.
Market trends change, which often leads to situations that are unthinkable. Our fellow investors best assess their own risk underwriting abilities, make good strategies to prevent losses and avoid large losses.
