How will the markets play out after the US stock market is expected to cool down?

Views 15322024.05.23

HOW TO DEPLOY IN THE EVENT THAT INTEREST RATE CUTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE U.S. CANNOT BE SQUEEZED?

Fedwatch Data for Shiba Exchange

(Source: CME)

BELIEVE THAT MANY BULLS KNOW BY NOW THAT THE NEWLY RELEASED US CPI DATA IS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, CAUSING THE MARKET TO LOWER EXPECTATIONS FOR FURTHER RATE CUTS. ACCORDING TO THE ABOVE CHICAGAS' FEDWATCH RATE FUTURES, THE PROBABILITY OF A RATE CUT IN JUNE HAS BEEN REDUCED TO BELOW 17%, FROM A POST 3 DAYS AGOImpact on U.S. equity market expectationsThe 49% showed signs of a significant decline, and under inflationary pressure, the possibility of interest rate cuts in the near term would vanish.The top three U.S. stock indexesThe more obvious adjustment that emerged last night and how investors should respond is exactly what this article will mention.

S&P 500 (.SPX.US)

$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$ The chart's upward channel is slightly different from that of April 8, but not significant, reflecting the fact that the index has not broken the upward trend. The main reason behind this is that the rise of US stocks this year is not entirely driven by interest rate cuts, corporate profitability and economic activity are also an important indicator, and recent non-farm gains And the CPI data are showing that the US economy is still strong, so this has not broken the upward trend. However, the expected change in interest rates may strengthen the trend of capital inflows into resource stocks and value stocks, as opposed to some yield-sensitive stocks such as real estate stocks, utilities or high-growth stocksTechnology StocksYou may face some stress. From the heat chart below, the author filters the performance of US stocks over almost 20 trading days to clearly see the difference in the flow of funds


After almost 20 trading days, funds are no longer flowing in unilaterallyTechnology StocksOr Semiconductor-related shares, more information from us at FutubullRun to beat S&P and surpass Inweida? The industry is becoming the new darling of Wall StreetEveryone knows the strength of energy stocks. And coming soonInterest Rate Reduction ExpectedChanges in this momentum will continue in the short term.


But the author points out that individuals think that the United StatesInterest Rate Reduction ExpectedOne thing you can still see from the above interest rate futures data is that there is still a high probability of a rate cut this year, which is unlikely to be the case in the first half of the year, but with long-term high interest rates, there will also be some high debt issues. In the last two months, interest rate cuts are expected to continue to warm, resulting inU.S. TreasuryThe auction response is getting worse. When economic indicators show they can't handle high interest rates, interest rate cuts are likely to flare up again, while individuals think that some semiconductors are once again offering investment opportunities, investors can also look out for some semiconductor ETFs again.

SEMICONDUCTOR ETF


Finally, some bulls may wonder how to judge whether interest rate cuts are expected to occur again. As mentioned in an article 3 days ago, the greater likelihood will be a weakening of PPI performance or geopolitical factors. The former is unlikely to change too much this month, and the latter is not advisable to speculate wildly. Therefore, US retail sales data and consumer confidence indices due later this month will also be subject to attention, with the performance of economic activity being a major factor in market speculation about changes in interest rates and money options.

Short summary:

Dividend changes aren't the only factor affecting U.S. stocks, but it's encouraging for funds to choose to track stocks in that category.

In the case of high-yielding enterprises ~

Resource stocks will be a stronger segment with strong cash flowTechnology StocksIt will also show resistance to falling.

When the return port reappears ~

SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS CAN BE SEEN AGAIN, AND GROWTH STOCKS ARE THE FOCUS OF THE MARKET.

(Of course, we believe that this change will not be overnight. Investors who are not very confident in their actions in the rotation of funds should be used firstCash BabyIt's not a bad thing to earn daily interest income, code can be flexible and profitable, wait for the next opportunity)

Last Ad Time
The goal of the future is to make investing easier, and this is the right line that will guide the development of the financial markets. What are the big things that people need to write and read。 If you have any difficulties with investing afterwards,Welcome to the physical store to answer your questions
The market is hot. Ever wanted to know me about the post-market division? You can join Futu's official investment exchange group and interact with me in real time

How to trade with Futu?

Before investing (buying and selling) stocks, you first need to open a securities (stocks) account. Just like depositing money in a bank, you need to open a bank account first.

Securities (Stock) Account Opening Process

Step 1: Head over to the Futubull network and sign up for a new account.(Register now)

Step 2: Open a securities account on the basis of the Futu account.(Open account now)

Step 3: Fill in your personal and financial details (includingBank Code and Account Number), and then deposit funds via EdDA Quick Deposit, Fast Transfer (FPS), Bank Transfer.(Invest immediately)

Step 4: Download the Futubull Customer Portal and log in.(Download now)
>> Futu Securities offers 5x24 hours trading of individual US shares and free LV2 emotions, open your wallet now and enjoy new rewards



>>Resource Source: Futubull Information, Chisao

>> Images are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute any investment advice or guarantee

The author is a licensee of the Securities and Exchange Commission and its affiliates do not have a financial interest in the proposed issuer of shares mentioned above

Senior Strategist, Futu Securities

Tam Chi Lok

One-stop trading with Futubull

Enjoy welcome rewards and lifetime 0 commission on HK stocks

Terms and conditions apply right-arrow

| GENERAL DISCLAIMER |

This report (the “Report”) is prepared by Futu Securities International (Hong Kong) Limited (“Futu Securities”). The person who retained this Report either via receiving and/or reading  (including any relevant attachment), shall agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below as has the right to retained this Report. Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of the law.

This Report shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Futu Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this Report.

The information contained in this Report has been obtained from public sources which Futu Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this Report are based on such information and are expressions of belief only.

Futu Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this Report is subject to change, and Futu Securities and/or its affiliated companies (collectively the “Futu Group”) shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Futu Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.

Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this Report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice.

This Report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. This Report should not and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, invitation, recommendation for buying or selling of investment products or as basis on making any investment decision, or constitute as professional advice from any member of Futu Group. The products mentioned in this Report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this Report should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.

This Report should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this Report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this Report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this Report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.

This report is provided by Futu Securities, which is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) in Hong Kong. If you have any questions about the Futu Securities Research Report, please contact Futu Securities. The CE number of SFC held by the author has been disclosed next to the author's name on the front page of the Report.

Nothing in this Report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such security.

| Certification |

Analyst(s) certified that (i) the views expressed in this Report accurately reflect his/her personal views on the listed corporation in this Report; and (ii) no part of his/her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Report.

Analyst(s) certified that he/she and/or his/her associate did not deal in or trade the listed corporation or its relevant securities within the 30 days prior to and 3 business days after the issue of this Report.

| Disclosure of Interest |

Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this Report nor his/her associate has any financial interest in or serves as an officer of the listed corporation covered in this Report.

Firm’s Disclosure: Futu Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered in this Report in the past 12 months nor any financial interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no executive staff of Futu Securities serves as an officer of the listed corporation.

| Availability |

The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Futu Securities to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.

Information contained herein is based on sources that Futu Securities believed to be accurate. Futu Group and/or relevant personnel (i.e., employees of Futu Group) may have positions and transactions in relevant investment products. Futu Group and/or relevant personnel does not bear responsibility for any loss suffered by the investor from the use of or reliance on the information set out in this report.

For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.futuhk.com.

This Report is written in Chinese and English, and the two versions are equally valid. If there is any contradiction between the two versions, the English version shall prevail.

Recommended