How should investors deploy the impact of CPI on the US stock market after the release of CPI?

The author originally intended to issue a review and outlook for the first half of US stocks todayHowever, with the trading performance of US stocks after the CPI announcement yesterday, I believe that people are more concerned about the performance of the US stocks in the short term post market than in the entire mid-term post market, and it seems that we will continue to lag behind the relevant outlook articlesFirst, let's take a look at the latest developments that U.S. stocks will face.

ON THE CPI DATA RELEASED YESTERDAY, THERE ARE CLEAR SIGNS OF US INFLATION PRESSURES SLOWING, LEADING MARKETS TO FURTHER BELIEVE THAT A FURTHER CYCLE OF RATE CUTS IS COMING. FROM THE CME'S FEDWATCH, THE ODDS OF A SEPTEMBER RATE CUT HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE 98%, ALMOST WITHOUT A DOUBT, LEADING TO LAST NIGHT'S US DEBT Interest Rate Declines, Related Longitudinal Debts $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$und $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US)$Has a good performance.

However, US stocks outperformed the spread. Track Small Stocks $Russell 2000 Index(.RUT.US)$The index rose sharply, but $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$und $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$There have been more marked adjustments in recent months under the drag of weighted stocks, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$und $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ $Costco(COST.US)$Large shadow candles appear on the solar chart.

In the evening, after a talk in the online store, a mooer asked about the reaction to the US stock market after CPI came out.

The current answer is that it is not the focus, the market will pay attention to certain events in the future, such as the different types of concepts, such as the dissolution of shares at night $Strategy(MSTR.US)$“The market is more concerned about these individual messages.” The authors did not accurately determine the occurrence of a weighted stock recall, but the performance of the market was not surprising. Here are the author's current insights into the market situation:

The path of decline is already very clear, and the market is not yet worried about a hard landing in the economy

Many investors are looking at yesterday's CPI data, or the non-farm employment data from earlier this month. In fact, writers have not focused on economic data recently, mainly because market expectations are already very clear, namely the belief that the trend of falling interest rates will take place in a gradual manner, as can be seen from last month's economic data, which was on May 31.”PCE coming and inflationary pressures coming back? Are interest rate expectations coming back again? ” and the 7th of June”Non-farming or showing a slowing economy? Interest rate reduction period means what day to expect? ” It is also mentioned that the author isLecture on June 11Mention the relevant direction. I believe that the vast majority of investors in the market are also aware of this, so the CPI data released are mostly reflected in the debt market (only because the debt market has recently been buoyed by electoral factors).

For now, the market is more concerned about whether the economy will face further downward pressure in the two months if rate cuts do not begin until September 18. So in the process of watching economic data to judge stock market movements, some economic data such as retail sales, durable goods orders, consumer confidence data, and personal spending become more influential.

Reasons behind small and medium-sized stocks

If you look at it in more detail, there are also post-tracking conditions such as Hot Door Sectors or Star Stocks before the move in the US, such as Tesla, $Intel(INTC.US)$、 $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$und $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)$That is, the above shares are subject to different trends or downshifts (especially Tesla has been true in the last month or so, the short line voltage can be greater). The Concept of SMB shares is very different. These small and medium-sized shares have grown in the market right after this year. In our actual operations, these SMEs are directly responsible for high profit margins, and today's debt recovery news, which leads to the transfer of funds to move out of the associated SME trust is important. The root cause.

In the case of heavyweight stocks, such as NVDA, $Apple(AAPL.US)$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ $Meta Platforms(META.US)$So, this year's strong level, aside from the heat wave, there is a common point behind these companies, which is super strong free cash flow, so the impact of this communication is relatively high in the Technology Industry (partly analyzed as having no impact, you can continue to buy it again). Therefore, these stocks are unlikely to decline in the short term.

Should I be chasing the wind right now?

Some mooers that are immature for the above content may be considered at the level of technical analysis after tracking trends. The E-mini Russell 2000 Index shows a single head and shoulder shape on the graph. Another angle to refer to the ETF that tracks the Roe Index 2000 $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US)$AND THE AUTO-LINE FEATURE OF THE CATTLE HAS ALSO EMERGED AS A BREAKTHROUGH OF THE ASCENDING TRIANGLE. Judging from technical trends, some short-line deployment suggestions suggest that these types of stocks can be followed smoothly, but are best deployed in the form of ETFs (the risk of small stocks is too high for indices to disperse the risk of individual stocks).

Keep in mind, however, that the above technical analysis is more suitable for medium-short line deployments, and this type of trailing behavior is more suitable for investors with a strong sense of the market. If you turn to slower investors, it is not very suitable.

In the long run, there will be considerable room for people to keep track of, but the investment race for the big companies is headed directly by technology, and technology has driven the growth of the entire economy for almost ten years. The Technology Industry will be followed by large R&D (R&D) support for small and medium-sized enterprises. So, from a practical perspective, people are not so enthusiastic about working with Intel, Rozen 2000 shares or concepts. Or is that a distinction between a Trader and an Analyst?。

How are Star Stocks Worth?

Short-line risks remain high on many Star Stocks in recent days, as well as more substantial gains from the start of the year to date. The best strategy for owners is to use COVERCALL's options strategy against risk. While US stocks are coming into the performance period, the IV wave of many stocks has risen to a high level, so Selling options strategy against the right equity risk is a good choice.

For investors who want to adjust their assets in the near term, it is common to estimate the value ratio of the bottom direct commodity before the support that is shown in the form of short a put option (Note the reserve money reserve for a good bank).

Broadly speaking, there is no significant change in the direction of AI investment themes this year, and the risks of the short-line fund movement are facing in the future. Or, in a simpler way, the current highest risk of bubbles is in AI network security in all different fields (the relevant Concept shares are often in the range of hundreds or thousands of pounds of PEP or no profitability), see below $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US)$Performance, while the technical trend is poor, there have been no crashes so far (and the year-to-date increase is more modest Therefore, investors who do not care about AI investment trusts can directly relate to the appearance of the related Concept shares with a reference of their own.

Monthly supply of US stocks is another option

Finally, if investors feel bad about the strategy described above, or if the current multifaceted message fails to dissipate, a monthly supply (RSP) long line investment may be a foolproof investment strategy. In particular, an ETF that tracks large disk indices, such as $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$、 $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO.US)$und $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$, or top investment topics such as Penghua Guozheng Semiconductor Chip ETF $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US)$etc. Details can be found in the Ox Education Course【Cattle Operation Class】Want to buy popular stocks, but find it difficult to choose? This way you can get on the car for $10“。

Futu Securities, Chief Analyst, Hui Chi-Lok

(The author is a licensee of the Securities and Exchange Commission and its affiliates do not have any financial interest in the proposed issuer of shares mentioned above)