Futu Research | Latest Tesla Stock Analysis, Performance Research, Investment Strategy
TESLA PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS | FULL OF SURPRISES, WILL THE STOCK PRICE TAKE OFF?
TESLA RELEASED ITS LATEST RESULTS FOLLOWING THE US STOCK MARKET CLOSE ON OCTOBER 23, WHICH OUTPERFORMED MARKET EXPECTATIONS, PUSHING THE STOCK PRICE UP MORE THAN 13% ABOVE THE $240 LEVEL DURING OVERNIGHT TRADING. We'll see today. $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ The latest performance determines whether a company can end the adjustment momentum and is it a rebound or a turning point?
Simply put, in terms of the results, only services and other revenue beat market expectations, and overall revenue was weak, but the company's overall gross profit beat market expectations, with the overall gross margin rising to 19.8% in the latest quarter, well above Bloomberg's 16.7% forecast, driving the company's overall profitability It beat market expectations, and I believe this is the main reason for the sharp rise in stock prices after the collapse.
Detailed performance of Tesla resultsI will not explain it in detail, but please see our rates for details.”After the results, the stock price rose! Tesla profit unexpectedly flips, Q3 EPS up 9%, Cybertruck makes first profit turnaround“。 The author will list below what I will consider the highlights of this time.
From a writers' point of view, the automotive and energy storage businesses are the core businesses of Tesla at the moment, but the gap between revenue and expectations should not affect the share price too much, mainly because in the release of operating data at the beginning of October, investors have a clear understanding of the volume of shipments of the related businesses and the deployment of the energy business In the event, the gap is only because the decline in the average selling price (asp) is still greater than market expectations, but the company has a stronger ability to control costs, resulting in an excellent gross margin performance.
TESLA BUSINESS ANALYSIS
Automotive Business
The focus of the gross margin was on cybertrucks, which also surprised the authors and the market. The company said that the profit of cybertrucks was the first time around, and demand for cybertrucks in the US market was not as gloomy as expected. Deliveries across the entire automotive industry also continued to grow in the three quarters, with the company expecting year-over-year vehicle deliveries to slightly surpass last year's Model 3/Y platform expanding globally to recapture the company's growth in the automotive sector. This is Tesla's unique advantage, according to the author, that in an efficient superfactory production model, as long as the product remains accepted by the public, the company is conditioned to increase the production of cars in an efficient way of capital expenditure and to balance receipts more easily than other competitors.
Energy Storage Business
The gross margin of the energy business rose to a record high of 30.5%, driven by the production pattern of the super plants in Wheatsela, which, given the high demand for these energy businesses, is expected to increase significantly over the next two years, given the full scale of the company's energy business. This is in line with the optimistic expectations raised by some of the major banks earlier in the market. Details can be reviewed”Tesla emerges as Three White Samurai, will the company become the new investment focus of the AI industry?“。
Energy business deployments decreased from 9.4Gwh in Q2 to 6.9Gwh in Q3. It was known at the time of the company's earlier release of operating data that the results also showed a slowdown in Megapack sales, but Powerwall maintained strong growth momentum, driven mainly by EV popularization and lower installation costs, which led to a 52.4% year-over-year increase in revenue from its energy storage business to $2.38 billion.
TESLA'S CARBON SALES ALSO FELL 17% DUE TO THE ABOVE REASONS, BUT GREW BY MORE THAN 30% YEAR-ON-YEAR, STILL THE SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD. Tesla says “other OEMs are still lagging behind in meeting emissions requirements.” As can be seen from the above data, the company's leading position in environmental policy remains very solid.
The global demand for clean energy will only grow. The company is also building the Shanghai Megafactory, a super energy storage plant, and the Shanghai plant is still on track to start delivering Megapacks in 2025. As the Mainland continues to expand its computing power in AI and data centres, Tesla's energy storage business in the Mainland is also expected to see a new wave of growth.
AI and Driverless
During the conference call, the company mentioned that future research will focus on artificial intelligence (AGI) and super artificial intelligence (ASI), and that driverless Tesla cars will offer paid travel services in the future. The company also noted that the compute volume of artificial intelligence (AI) training increased by more than 75% in the quarter, when Tesla pre-deployed a cluster of 0.029 million Zhang Weiingda H100 chips at its Texas superplant GigaFactory for training, which is expected to have a production capacity of 0.05 million H100 units by the end of October. (Not excluding the night table, this message was also driven by $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ Regulate)
From the above mentioned Tesla layout, it can be predicted that as training calculations increase, future versions of FSD will continue to be upgraded and security and comfort greatly improved, which will lead to a significant increase in revenue from Tesla's other services.
Tesla (TSLA) Results Summary
The biggest highlight of this quarter's performance is that Tesla has excellent cost control capabilities and will be conditioned to continue expanding production capacity and regaining growth in the future as the product continues to have an impact on the market. As the application of AI gradually becomes more widespread and reliable, some of the company's long-term development goals, such as driverless driving, are becoming clearer and clearer, which is the biggest turning point since these results.
From a technical analysis point of view, the share price is higher overnight, the share price is likely to break through a short-term downtrend after the market open today, while KDJ will also reissue buy signals. This is undoubtedly an optimistic signal for the holders. At the same time, you can watch for whether the MACD will issue a gold cross at the low level and whether the trading volume improves. If the above four favorable technical indicator signals are combined, it is conditional to see Tesla's stock price move.
At the moment, the first resistance level will be $240, and whether it can be broken in the short term will be key. FOR UNSTOCKED CATTLE, IT IS STRATEGICALLY POSSIBLE TO OPERATE A BEARISH FOLLOW-UP, BY WHICH TIME THE NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL WILL BE AT THE TOP OF THE BULLISH CHANNEL, CLOSE TO THE LEFT OF THE $260 ZONE.
Tesla (TSLA) ETF
Finally, as the pre-career video said, for the incoming investors, the following Tesla ETFs can also look out for the following Tesla ETFs
Do twice as much: $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL.US)$
Article author
The author is a licensee of the Securities and Exchange Commission and its affiliates do not have any financial interest in the proposed issuer of shares mentioned above.
Chichilok Chief Analyst of Futu Securities CE No.Central Code:AVJ390
