Analysis of exchange rate trends
Is the major trend of dollar depreciation difficult, and is cryptocurrency expected to benefit from it?
Gold prices continued to hit all-time highs this month. In addition to hedging sentiment, the depreciation of the US dollar is also a key factor. The weakness of the dollar is even more evident as Trump is “exporting” forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Reasons for the depreciation of the US dollar
The dollar index has not improved so far after falling past 100. While the short line has the potential for a technical bounce, the big downward trend is unlikely to be reversed as short-term market sentiment will surround Trump's tariff policy risks. Trump's series of actions are the main reasons for the weakness of the dollar. Tariff policy poses the risk of a trade war, the attitude of the United States to the situation in Russia, and the words that influence the actions of the Federal Reserve, have also prompted “de-dollarization” actions.
Benefits of US Dollar Depreciation
The recent rise in gold and the yen, these traditional safe haven assets, may not be solely influenced by hedging factors, but also reflects the market's view of “de-dollarization.” Thinking from this perspective and perspective, cryptocurrency investment opportunities may not be overlooked as long as the global economy is not at obvious risk of recession. After all, the ideas of “de-dollarization” and “decentralization” are the same, and given the recent development of cryptocurrencies, it is still worth paying attention to $ Bitcoin (BTC.CC) $ For the Lord.
Cryptocurrency Analysis
There are signs of improvement in Bitcoin's technical momentum starting on April 11, such as the MACD low signals a gold cross, breaking through the symmetric triangle pattern on the K-line daily chart, and MA10 also rising above MA250, MA20 and MA50 to form several gold crosses. Most importantly, Bitcoin fell 20% from its historic high of 109640 points after falling into the technical bear market, and has been below 87712 points since March 3 (i.e. the technical bear market). Bitcoin today revisited this threshold for the first time, which is another important element for a cryptocurrency market that relies on quantitative trading.
Judging by the latest technical analysis, the current sentiment of a technical rebound is dominated. The reference support position in the short term will be ma10, temporarily at $85111, while the mid-line psychological close will fall at $87712. As long as the short-term and post-mid-term cities maintain support above, the performance of the second quarter is likely to be a surprise. As for the short-line resistance level, at $90846 on ma100, the price is expected to make a move upwards. If there is a deal to break through, it is expected that the price will recover the drop brought by this year's all-time high of circa 0.618, i.e. a return to the upper resistance level of mid-February, circa 98 Between 000~100000 dollars.
As for another popular cryptocurrency $ Ether (ETH.CC) $ There are also signs of a technical bounce for the time being, but given that the average moving line remains in the “empty line” pattern, and there is still a lot of bullish sentiment in the market at the moment, the risks and confusion surrounding Ethereum will be very difficult for many investment novices. In a fundamental analysis, cryptocurrencies are just benefiting from “de-dollarization” and the concept of “application” is still very complex to this day, with many cryptocurrencies with the same concepts on the market such as $ Solana (SOL.CC) $ $ Ripple (XRP.CC) $ $ LINK/USD (LINKUSD.CC) $ $ Avalanche Coin (AVAX.CC) $ The performance remains weak, indicating that the risks of this cryptocurrency are still high.
USD Weakness Concept Stock Investment
Given that the current concept of cryptocurrency investment is dominated by the weakness of the US dollar, the bullish concept also revolves mainly around the rarity of Bitcoin. If you invest in Bitcoin related concept stocks, it is advisable to $Strategy(MSTR.US)$ This type of share operation is the main focus. After all $Coinbase(COIN.US)$ As an exchange for cryptocurrencies, unless there is a new surge in coins, the company's valuation upside story is relatively poor.
(Source:Strategetracker)
The current valuation of mstr is around double the premium of btc held (2.019x), matched by the recent BTC bullish momentum, with little risk of a kill valuation in the short term. However, the authors are not very fond of mstr's operating model, and it is recommended to consider using this stock as a short-line speculation operation. For inbound short line operations, consider some doubly leveraged reverse ETF products as an investment, after all, these products can avoid the time loss and exposure volatility risk of options and are more suitable for short line operations.
Mstr x2 positive: for example ~ $CSOP MicroStrategy Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07799.HK)$ $T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF(MSTU.US)$
Mstr x2 inverse: e.g. ~ $CSOP MicroStrategy Daily (-2x) Inverse Product(07399.HK)$ $T-Rex 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF(MSTZ.US)$
Author: Chief Analyst of Chili Lok Futu Securities
(The author is a licensee of the Securities and Exchange Commission and its affiliates do not have any financial interest in the Proposed Share Issuer)
