Bitcoin Handbag | What is Bitcoin? Playing games?
How is the Bitcoin price trending? How should one invest in Bitcoin in 2026?
Futu Securities Senior Analyst Feng Wenhui stated that Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair and the partial shutdown of the U.S. government caused the cryptocurrency market to decline, but she believes the market may currently be overinterpreting the Fed Chair nominee; once market liquidity improves, the direction of its policy may not be as unfavorable to the Canadian dollar money market as the market expects. Bitcoin has now entered “extreme fear” territory, and when the market falls into “extreme fear,” it is often a good opportunity to take a contrarian approach.
Latest BTC Trends
BTC/USD Immediate Price Movement
Bitcoin Trend Analysis
Futu Securities Senior Analyst Feng Wenhui pointed outOut: Currently, Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index has fallen to nearly 15, entering “Extreme Fear” territory. Based on historical experience, when the market falls into “Extreme Fear,” it often presents a prime opportunity for contrarian trading. From the perspective of Fibonacci retracement levels, this wave’s high was near $126,000, while the low reached nearly $74,000—initial resistance for a rebound lies around $86,000, with further upside potential toward roughly $95,000. If we can indeed successfully identify the bottom of this downward wave, there may be considerable room for a subsequent rebound. For example, when Bitcoin fell to nearly $75,000 last April, those who bought the dip later enjoyed returns exceeding 60%. Similarly, after the events of October 2021, Bitcoin continued to decline, eventually plunging into an extreme panic zone between 10% and 20%. If one had managed to buy the dip at that time, they could have reaped nearly 20% in returns afterward. If history truly does repeat itself, leveraging this indicator may allow traders to seize short‑term opportunities for bounce‑trading.
Reasons for the Sharp Drop in Cryptocurrency Prices
Feng Wenhui stated that U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced on social media that he had nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Kevin Warsh is widely regarded by the market as a “hawkish representative,” and his monetary policy stance stands in stark contrast to that of the current Fed. At the same time, the partial shutdown of the U.S. government took effect on January 31, further intensifying risk aversion and uncertainty in the markets. Under the influence of tightening global liquidity, the cryptocurrency market followed suit with sharp declines, briefly falling below $75,000 and plunging nearly 15% within the day, at one point slipping below the $2,200 mark. However, given Trump’s past approach to decision‑making, he will undoubtedly repeatedly assess whether the new nominee can align with his policies and share his goals before making a formal nomination. He would never nominate someone who opposes him 100%, especially since doing so would only harm his chances in the midterm elections—making the likelihood of such an outcome virtually zero. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the market is currently overinterpreting the Fed Chair nominee; once market liquidity improves, the direction of Fed policy may not be as unfavorable to the Canadian dollar and the broader currency market as the market currently expects.
Feng Wenhui is a licensed person with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CE No.: BOD280), and neither she nor any of her associates holds any financial interest in the aforementioned proposed share issuer.
Cryptocurrency Bill
In 2025, cryptocurrencies are drawing significant attention, with three bills—the CLARITY Act, the GENIUS Act, and the Anti-CBDC Act—becoming the focal points of Crypto Week. Below are the key highlights of these three bills:
The CLARITY Act: Aims to provide a clearer regulatory framework, defining the classification of digital assets and clarifying regulatory responsibilities. Simply put, it offers more transparent guidance for the regulation of cryptocurrencies and digital assets. In the long run, this will be beneficial for the development of digital assets or RWA.
The “GENIUS Act”: Focused on the regulation of stablecoins and promoting their compliant development as payment instruments, the bill is expected to drive stablecoins toward mainstream adoption. Having passed the Senate, the legislation primarily aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, thereby advancing the strategic goal of bolstering the U.S. dollar’s position in the global digital economy.
“Anti-CBDC Bill”: The core rationale is to safeguard citizens’ financial privacy and prevent the government from using CBDCs for comprehensive financial surveillance. This bill will target efforts to oppose or restrict the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which could impact the advancement of the digital dollar.
Note that the aforementioned bills share certain commonalities: first, they aim to regulate and standardize the scale of stablecoin and digital asset development, thereby achieving the goals of long‑term, healthy growth and widespread adoption—this is one of the core rationales behind the U.S. stock market’s enthusiasm for stablecoin speculation. Among these bills, the most contentious is likely to be the “Anti-CBDC Act.” Proponents argue that the bill can protect privacy and prevent excessive government intervention, while opponents worry that it may stifle financial innovation and leave the United States trailing behind in global competition. Simply put, the crux of this bill lies in striking a balance between cryptocurrency’s “decentralization” and “regulation.” If the bill makes progress during the legislative process, it is believed that this will hold significant meaning for the long‑term development of cryptocurrencies.
When we talk about “decentralization,” Bitcoin naturally comes to mind—after all, the core investment logic behind Bitcoin is that, according to its white paper, there are only 21 million Bitcoins in circulation worldwide and they are free from interference by any government or central bank. Furthermore, although the TACO trading concept has led the investment market to disregard the risks of a trade war, Trump’s trade policies are very likely to continue eroding the U.S. dollar’s position in the international market. In my view, the concepts of “de‑dollarization” and “decentralization” will continue to be implemented; this is the core rationale supporting Bitcoin’s price as it attempts to reach new highs.
How to Determine the Trend of Bitcoin’s Value
Weaker Dollar
Assuming that Trump’s trade policies do not alter the overarching global trend of “de‑dollarization,”$USD(USDindex.FX)$The vulnerability is very likely to persist in 2025.
The trend of interest rate cuts remains unchanged.
Although discussions about U.S. Treasury bonds are very likely to remain heated in the second half of the year—topics such as default risks, which many were concerned about in June, will probably persist—after all, the pressure surrounding U.S. debt is indeed real. On top of that, the “Build Back Better Act” is only likely to deepen market concerns about the fiscal deficit. More importantly, the U.S. economy is currently only in a disinflationary phase; even if interest rate cuts do occur, they are most likely to be gradual, leading to a slow decline in U.S. Treasury yields. However, as long as this downward trend remains intact, it will continue to favor the performance of risk assets in the second half of the year.
Rarity and Strategic Reserve Policies Across Countries
Due to its fixed supply (21 million coins) and “decentralized” nature, Bitcoin is regarded by investors as “digital gold” and is well suited for use as a reserve asset. This year, the United States officially established a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” utilizing confiscated Bitcoin as reserve assets. As regulatory measures are refined and preparations are made for long‑term development, it’s worth paying attention to whether the U.S. will increase its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. At the same time, whether more countries will improve or soften their stance toward Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is also a core reason supporting price appreciation.
When it comes to rarity and de‑dollarization, investors naturally think of gold.$Gold Main Contract (GCmain.US)$Since the beginning of this year, prices have also been showing a solid upward trend; as gold prices move higher, it also signifies that market demand for rare assets continues. We believe that the price trends of gold and Bitcoin should remain positively correlated.
Bitcoin trading platform
Futu Securities is a licensed institution under the Hong Kong SFC, compliantly providing virtual asset trading services. Investors can directly purchase Bitcoin and Ethereum spot contracts using either HKD or USD, with a low investment threshold as low as HKD 80/USD 10—and you can even deposit and withdraw funds on Futu. Currently, trading cryptocurrency spot on Futu comes with a 0‑commission promotion.
