Apple Stock Q3 Outside Analysts' Forecast & Preview 2023

On Thursday, May 4th, Apple AAPL - the largest market cap in the stock market - is set to report their earnings after the market closes. As one of the world's leading consumer products and technology company, Apple's financial performance serves as a crucial indicator for the broader economy.

Apple's stock appears to be a solid investment so far this year, as evidenced by the impressive returns it has generated, which cannot be understated. The stock has surged by 30% year-to-date (as of May 3, 2023), 300% over the past five years, and 1100% over the last decade. However, it did experience a dip of -30% in 2022. Despite this setback, it has been able to reclaim most of its losses in the first four months of 2023.

Source：Apple Earnings Preview: Bull vs Bear Case for AAPL Stock - 2023/05/03

Part 2：Apple FY2023 Q3 Earnings Report Recap

1. Key Indicators and Historical Earnings Report

• - Apple FY2023 Q3 EPS was $1.26, YOY +5.00%
• - Apple PE Ratio today is 28.29 
• - Apple FY2023 Q3 Revenue was $81.8B, YOY -1.40% 
• - Apple FY2023 Q3 FCF was $24.3B, YOY +16.82%
• - Apple FY2023 Q3 Current Ratio was 0.98, YOY +13.52% 
• - Apple FY2023 Q3 ROA was 5.96%, YOY +5.29%
• - Apple FY2023 Q3 ROE was 32.48%, YOY +4.83%
• - Apple FY2023 Q3 Gross Margin was 44.52%, YOY +2.91% 
• - Apple FY2023 Q3 Net Margin was 24.31%, YOY +3.71% 

2. Apple FY2023 Q3 Financial Analysis Report

•         Apple's Q1 revenue was $94.84 billion, down 3% YoY, with an EPS of $1.52, exceeding the market expectation of $1.43. Overall performance exceeded market expectations, benefiting from iPhone sales exceeding expectations and offsetting the weak performance of Mac and iPad. The second-largest source of revenue, service revenue, grew 5% YoY to $20.91 billion, slightly below the market expectation of $20.97 billion. 
   
  This quarter's gross margin was 44.3%, exceeding analysts' estimated value of 44.1%. It increased 0.6% compared to the same period last year and was higher than the company's previously predicted range of 43.5%-44.5%. The net profit margin decreased slightly YoY from 25.71% to 25.47%, resulting in a 3.4% YoY decline in net profit to $24.16 billion. This was mainly due to an increase in R&D expense ratio of $1 billion, which rose from 6.57% in the same period last year to 7.86%.

Source：富途牛牛 - AAPL财报解读分析 - 2023/05/05

3. Apple FY2023 Q3 Business Data

Apple's overall revenue declined YoY for two consecutive quarters, but the decline was slightly smaller this quarter. Despite being influenced by the economic downturn, iPhone revenue reached a new high compared to the same period in previous years, and service revenue hit historic highs. The management team indicated that supply chain issues, including production stoppages caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in China, which had hindered product manufacturing in the past few quarters, have now been resolved. This quarter, no product lines were affected by component shortages.

The revenue performance of Mac and iPad was lower than market expectations. CEO Tim Cook explained that this was due to the overall economic deterioration and the higher revenue base from the same period last year when the M1 chip version MacBook Pro was launched. This year, the new version of MacBook Pro was only introduced in March, and the sales of iPad Pro with the M2 chip did not contribute to an increase in sales.

The Asia-Pacific region showed a growth rate of over 15% YoY, outperforming other regions. The European region grew slightly YoY, while the Americas and Japan saw declines of 8% and 7%, respectively, resulting in poor performance. The YoY decline in Greater China has narrowed from -7% in the previous quarter to -3%.

Furthermore, the market has high expectations for China's epidemic prevention policies. However, Qualcomm stated in its recent earnings report that China's economic recovery is slower than expected. Nevertheless, from Apple's performance in Greater China, it seems that China's economic recovery is underway.

Source：富途牛牛 - AAPL業績解讀分析 - 2023/05/05

In Q1, Apple lost its top spot to Samsung in the smartphone market, but global smartphone shipments declined by 13%, with all manufacturers seeing a YoY decrease. Against this backdrop, Apple's Q1 performance was still quite good, benefiting primarily from the excellent performance of the iPhone 14 series. However, its continued success in Q2/Q3 is uncertain.

In terms of revenue, Apple's iPhone sales reached $51.334 billion in Q1, up 1.5% YoY and accounting for 54% of total revenue. Apple claimed 18% of the global market share in Q1, while Samsung ranked first with 24%. The top 5 players in the industry are entrenched, and new players have little room to enter. These companies need new growth curves to achieve growth, as relying on annual 20% growth is no longer feasible. For Apple, VR may be a new area of growth, but it remains unclear whether Apple will enter the car manufacturing field.

Source：苹果2023年Q1(苹果财年Q2）季报解读—高胜率，但不是高赔率 - 2023/05/05

Source: https://www.futunn.com/hk/stock/AAPL-US/financial/business-data

Part 3：How to Buy Apple Stocks in Hong Kong

1.  

2. 1. Find a suitable stock investment platform When investing in US stocks, you need to use a platform that can access the US stock market. FUTUBULL is one of the best options out there. (Sign Up)

   2. Funds deposited Fill in personal and financial details and deposit via bank transfer, ATM card or using Apple/Google Pay. (Deposit)
   3. Search Apple to find the Apple stock by name or ticker symbol, then do your research to make sure it aligns with your investment objectives.

   4. Select an order type and buy Apple stock Use a market order to buy Apple stock on any trading day, or use a limit order to delay until your desired stock price is reached.

   5. Track your investment performance By tracking the long-term performance of your investment, you can improve your investment portfolio to achieve long-term returns. Access to dividends and shareholder voting rights may also affect your stock. Sign up for FUTUBULL now to get real-time quotes on top stocks and get free stocks.

The forecast data in this article comes from the Futu  APP. Open Futu to easily browse all business income data. We provide interpretation of financial reports to help you quickly preview and understand financial data. You can easily view the core estimates through easy-to-read charts, and at the same time watch the online earnings conference call of the money-making season in real time to grasp the latest market trends.

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